The markets, in numbers.
Transactions, prices and yields across the markets I follow: the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. The centre of gravity is Dubai, and not by preference: it is the only market in the region with a publicly queryable registry, so it is the only one where we can show numbers anyone can verify. For Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah, Riyadh and Bali the data is curated by hand from official sources, and we say so every time.
How is the real estate market performing in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bali?
In 2025 Dubai hit a record year — over 270,000 sale transactions, up 20% — Abu Dhabi saw transacted value grow 48%, and Ras Al Khaimah was the most dynamic UAE market, with apartment prices up 65%. Saudi Arabia opened to non-resident ownership in January 2026; Bali offers some of the highest holiday-rental yields in the world.
DLD, ADREC, REGA, BPS · industry reports · lucavallelonga.com analysis
United Arab Emirates
Dubai
The most liquid and transparent market in the region. 2025 was a record year, with structural international demand.
270,000+
Sale transactions 2025 · +20%
AED 917 bn≈ $249.69 bn
Value transacted 2025
+24%
Investor base growth
Source: DLD 2025 · Bayut · Global Property Guide
Gross market yield on existing stock (EJARI rents ÷ real DLD prices). A conservative figure: new developments, once completed, typically yield above this area average.
Structural growth
Official consolidated annual data for 2024 — the 2025 figures are still being published.
4.58M
Dubai population · end 2025, +7.5%
Dubai Statistics Center
+332,000
New Dubai residents in 2025
Dubai Statistics Center
71,830
New companies joining the Dubai Chamber of Commerce in 2025 · membership +13.2%
Dubai Chamber of Commerce
No.1 globally
Greenfield FDI projects 2025 · fifth year running, 1,253 projects (+10.5%)
Dubai Economy & Tourism · fDi Markets
Masterplan
A masterplan maps out the city of the next twenty years — where it will grow and where value will concentrate. For an investor it's a read that matters: before choosing an area, it's worth going through it.
Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan
Government of Dubai
The urban plan taking Dubai to 5.8 million residents by 2040, with 60% of the population in five urban centres.
Explore the masterplanUnited Arab Emirates
Abu Dhabi
The capital: more institutional, a strong presence of government developers. In 2025 transacted value grew 48%, driven by foreign capital.
42,814+
Real estate transactions · +52%
AED 142 bn≈ $38.67 bn
Value transacted 2025 · +48%
AED 8.2 bn≈ $2.23 bn
Foreign direct investment · +13%
Source: ADREC · Abu Dhabi Real Estate Market Report 2025
Masterplan
A masterplan maps out the city of the next twenty years — where it will grow and where value will concentrate. For an investor it's a read that matters: before choosing an area, it's worth going through it.
Plan Abu Dhabi 2030
Government of Abu Dhabi
The emirate's urban plan: diversification beyond oil, development of the islands — Saadiyat (culture), Yas (tourism), Al Reem (residential), Hudayriyat (lifestyle and sport), Fahid (Aldar) — new districts, infrastructure and tourism capacity.
Explore the masterplanUnited Arab Emirates
Ras Al Khaimah
The fastest-growing UAE market in 2025 — apartment prices up 65% — driven by the Wynn resort on Al Marjan Island, opening in 2027.
+65%
Apartment price growth 2025
~7%
Average gross apartment yield
2027
Wynn resort opening · Al Marjan
Source: Bayut · RAK Market Report 2025
Masterplan
A masterplan maps out the city of the next twenty years — where it will grow and where value will concentrate. For an investor it's a read that matters: before choosing an area, it's worth going through it.
Ras Al Khaimah Vision 2030
Government of Ras Al Khaimah · RAKTDA
The emirate's decade-long strategy, centred on sustainable tourism: 3.5 million annual visitors by 2030 and doubled hotel capacity. It's the framing behind launches like the Wynn resort on Al Marjan Island (opening 2027), the first integrated resort in the region.
Explore the masterplanSaudi Arabia
Arabia Saudita
An expanding market, driven by Vision 2030. Since January 2026 the law opening property ownership to non-residents is in force — a turning point for foreign investors.
SAR 66 bn≈ $17.6 bn
Riyadh residential sales · H1 2025, +63%
Jan 2026
Ownership opened to non-residents
Vision 2030
The structural growth driver
Source: Cavendish Maxwell · Arabian Business · STC Real Estate Index 2025
Structural growth
Official consolidated annual data for 2024 — the 2025 figures are still being published.
35.3M
Saudi Arabia population · 2024, latest GASTAT figure
GASTAT · General Authority for Statistics
66.2%
Home ownership · end 2025, 70% target by 2030
Saudi Housing Program · Ministry of Municipalities and Housing
+4.9%
Non-oil sector growth in 2025
GASTAT · General Authority for Statistics
Masterplan
A masterplan maps out the city of the next twenty years — where it will grow and where value will concentrate. For an investor it's a read that matters: before choosing an area, it's worth going through it.
Saudi Vision 2030
Government of Saudi Arabia
The national transformation plan: diversification beyond oil, private sector at 65% of GDP, megaprojects (NEOM, Red Sea, Diriyah) and the regional HQ programme. As of January 2026, real estate opened to non-resident investors.
Explore the masterplanIndonesia
Bali
Some of the highest holiday-rental yields in the world. Investment concentrates in Canggu and the emerging areas nearby — Pererenan and Cemagi — as well as Ubud. Foreigners buy leasehold (over 80% of the market); tourism at record levels in 2025.
~6.95M
Tourist arrivals 2025 · +9.7%
+7%
Property price growth 2025
81%
Leasehold share of supply
Source: BPS · tourist arrivals · private market reports
United Arab Emirates
Umm Al Quwain
The early-stage market I follow closely. For years the quietest of the Emirates, today it sits at the centre of a development plan that is reshaping its trajectory — led by the emirate's government together with Sobha, with other developers now entering.
The signals I track
Downtown Umm Al Quwain
A 25-million-sqft coastal masterplan, a partnership between the UAQ government and Sobha announced in 2025: 11 km of coastline and up to around 150,000 residents planned.
Sobha Siniya Island
An ~$5 billion waterfront island community: around 25,000 residents and 8,000 units in the first phase, handover expected in 2028.
New developers
The arrival of solid players — Deyaar alongside Sobha — is the signal that matters: it brings credibility, infrastructure and construction standards.
Location
A natural coastline, beaches and a lagoon, and a direct border with Ras Al Khaimah — the most dynamic emirate of 2025, where the Wynn resort opens in 2027.
It remains an early-stage market: low entry tickets — around 20% below Dubai and Abu Dhabi — and upside tied to the growth of the whole federation, but still-forming liquidity and scarce public market data. I follow it for those who want to enter early: precise figures are assessed project by project.
Source: Khaleej Times · The National · developer announcements · lucavallelonga.com analysis
What it takes to get in, market by market
Knowing how a market is doing only helps so much if you do not know whether you can get into it. These are the thresholds you enter at today: orders of magnitude to orient yourself, not quotes, and they move with the project and the unit size.
Mature market · transparent rules
United Arab Emirates
Four markets in the same federation, with very different profiles. Dubai is the natural starting point for liquidity and transparency: it is the market where a mistake is recoverable, because there is always a buyer. The other three ask for more patience and reward those who arrive early.
Dubai
From$220k
Expected yield: 6-10%
The most liquid and transparent market in the region. Liquidity covers mistakes: you can sell.
Abu Dhabi
From$336k
Expected yield: 6-8%
The institutional capital. Slower pace, solid fundamentals, fewer swings.
Ras Al Khaimah
From$209k
Expected yield: early growth
The casino resort opens in 2027. Buying now means buying before the repricing, and taking that as the risk.
Umm Al Quwain
From$209k
Expected yield: early stage
The emirate earliest in its cycle. High potential, long horizon, limited liquidity today.
Vision 2030 · market opening up
Saudi Arabia
This is not a market cycle, it is a national plan. Vision 2030 is moving capital and demand at a scale Europe has never seen, and foreigners have been able to buy since 2021. It is a young market: we work only with developers we have a direct agreement with.
Riyadh
From$249k
Expected yield: growth
The centre of the plan. Structural growth from a price base that is still contained.
Jeddah
per project
Expected yield: stable
The Red Sea gateway, an established city. New launches are assessed one by one.
Red Sea
per project
Expected yield: luxury
Luxury resorts on a dedicated archipelago. Long horizons and existing wealth only.
Tourism yield · its own rules
Indonesia · Bali
Bali offers some of the highest yields in the world, but with rules of its own: foreigners are not granted full freehold, you work with time-limited rights. That is the first point to settle, not the last, and it does not disqualify the market: within a portfolio that is already built, with high income over a defined horizon as the objective, it can make perfect sense.
Bali
From$174k
Expected yield: 9-10%
Pererenan, Ubud, Cemagi. No mass catalogue: only projects I have seen in person.
Thresholds are indicative and refer to the minimum ticket to enter each market today. Expected yield is gross: where you find a word instead of a percentage, it is because a single number would mislead.
The questions that come up about the market
Is the Dubai property market crashing in 2026?
No, but it is slowing against an all-time high, and that distinction changes everything. In the first seven months of 2026 the Dubai Land Department registry recorded around 103,000 sales worth 328 billion dirhams: less than 2025, which was the record year, but more than 2024, both in count and in value. There is also a technical effect worth knowing: off-plan registrations land one to three months after signing, so the most recent months of the current year are always incomplete when set against a year that has already closed.
How is the Dubai market doing right now?
The most honest answer is to look at the data rather than summarise it: the home page shows sales registered in the last seven days and the year-to-date total, compared with the two previous years, updated nightly from the official registry. A market is not judged on one week, but on how the running total moves against prior years.
Is the Dubai market only about homes?
No, and this is the part usually missing from the story. Dubai attracts thousands of new companies each year alongside new residents, and those companies need offices, warehouses and retail space. It is an engine that supports the residential market too: whoever opens a business brings employees, and employees look for somewhere to rent. When you look at residential sales figures you are seeing the effect, not the cause.
Where do these numbers come from?
For Dubai, from the Dubai Land Department transaction registry published on Dubai Pulse, which we read automatically. For Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah, Saudi Arabia and Bali the data is curated by hand from official sources and industry reports, because those markets have no publicly queryable registry like Dubai's. The difference is stated here and on every card.
Why are the yields I see elsewhere higher?
Almost always because they are gross and calculated on the off-plan launch price rather than today's prices, or because they come from a single well-chosen project. The yields on these cards are gross too, but computed on current prices and across all transactions in the area, so they are lower and harder to dispute.
The data is curated and verified against official sources — DLD, ADREC, REGA, BPS — and reliable industry reports. For Dubai, median area prices already come from the direct Dubai Land Department feed, updated nightly; yields remain curated until rental contracts are integrated (on the roadmap).
Data updated August 2026 · Curated by Luca Vallelonga
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